October Professional Development Meeting

October 10, 2017
5:45 PM - 8:30 PM

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Christiana Hilton
100 Continental Drive
Newark, DE 19713
Venue Website

Making Analytical / Statistical Tools Work in a Highly Seasonal Business

Peter Thomas and Dr. Dean Face

Forecasting for a highly seasonal business is tricky, and off the shelf models fail to provide sufficient forecast accuracy. In this presentation, we will reveal the flaws of the most commonly used seasonal models, and the resulting challenges they present to forecasting and demand planning teams. Whilst all forecasting systems contain seasonal statistical models, they alone are not enough to accurately assess demand. How then do we overcome this limitation?  The answer lies in customizing your existing models. So, what changes are required, and how do they improve forecast accuracy? That is exactly what I will discuss in this session. I will show how we overcame these challenges at DuPont using SAP SCM7 and our successful approaches to developing statistical forecasts that have reaped significant rewards. With practical takeaways, you will be able to implement this knowledge into your own forecasting processes.

You will learn:
 - Why seasonal statistical models alone may not be adequate for a highly seasonal business
 - Valuable approaches to managing history and seasonal models
 - How modeling is paramount to organizational acceptance of statistical forecasts

5:45 - 6:30  Registration & Networking
6:30 - 7:15  Dinner
7:15 - 8:30  Announcements and Speaker

Speakers Biography:
Peter Thomas
Peter Thomas, CPF
- Pete is the Demand Leader for the DuPont Crop Protection business. His experience with DuPont and Agribusiness spans over 35 years in various commercial roles including sales, market research, product management, business development, project management, and business improvement. He is a Certified Professional Forecaster, Certified Supply Chain Consultant, and Certified Six Sigma Champion. In 2015, he was assigned to create a Demand Management organization and lead an End-to-End business improvement transformation.

Dr. Dean Face
Dr. Dean Face
- Dean is currently the Analytics Team Leader and a Six Sigma Master Black Belt in the DuPont Nutrition and Health business. His current work is focused on the development and optimization of statistical forecasting methods, advanced inventory models, and product wheel designs for DuPont on a global basis. Work with other DuPont businesses includes the development of business specific Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) models based on a wide range of global economic leading indicators designed to aid in the demand planning process. Previous experience includes R&D and program management in the areas of superconductivity, electronic materials, thin films, and electronic devices. Dean was a postdoctoral fellow at MIT and has a Ph.D. in Applied Physics from Yale University and a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from Caltech.

Registration Deadline:
5PM the day before the meeting  (see refund policy)


$35.00 Registration - Brandywine Valley Chapter Members (Login Required)

$35.00 Registration - APICS member but NOT a member of Brandywine Valley Chapter (no login)

$0.00 Student Registration

$40.00 Registration - Non-member of APICS (if applicable, apply Coupon Code at checkout)